For the past couple of years the American women have had respectable showings in the Grand Slam events, in large part due to the dominance of Serena Williams. What lies ahead for American women’s tennis when Serena retires? Is the USTA Player Development Program getting the job done?
On a positive note, there are more American players in the top 100 than any other country. Unfortunately, a closer look at the January 6, 2014 rankings shows that most of the American women are not in the upper echelon, i.e. only two are ranked in the top 25. Right or wrong, this creates the perception that the focus of the USTA Player Development program is on quantity rather than quality.
The American women, their age, and their ranking in the top 100 follow:
- 1 Serena Williams, 32
- 13 Sloane Stephens, 20
- 28 Jamie Hampton, 24
- 36 Madison Keys, 18
- 38 Venus Williams, 33
- 48 Bethanie Mattek-Sands, 28
- 52 Varvara Lepchenko, 27
- 55 Alison Riske, 23
- 65 Christina McHale, 21
- 67 Lauren Davis, 20
- 71 Vania King, 20.
The average age of the players in the top 100 is slightly over 25 years old. Four of the American women are older than 25 and 7 are younger. The average age of the American players in the top 100 is 24 years old.
From a practical standpoint, an argument can be made that the younger players will become difference makers as the older players retire or their level of play drops off. If that argument holds, then the 7 American women below the mean are likely to move up and those above the mean will move on.
This viewpoint is supported by the data. Statistically there is a slightly negative correlation between the ranking of the top 100 women players and their age. In other words, the higher ranked players are older and the lower ranked players are younger (see chart below).
Thirty of the top 100 players are 27 years old or older and 9 are in the top 25. Of the 4 Americans in this age group, Serena Williams is the only one in the top 25.
Twenty of the top 100 players are either 25 or 26 and 7 are in the top 25. No Americans are in this age category.
In other words, there are good players at all levels, but 16 of the players are at least 25 years old. For the younger players, the good news is that most will move on in the next 5 years.
The remaining 50 players in the top 100 are less than 25 years old. Nine of them are currently in the top 25. Their rank and age are listed below:
- 2 Victoria Azarenka, 24.5
- 5 Agnieszka Radwanska, 24.9
- 6 Petra Kvitova, 23.8
- 10 Caroline Wozniacki, 23.5
- 11 Simona Halep, 22.3
- 13 Sloane Stephens, 20.8
- 15 Sabine Lisicki, 24.3
- 21 Dominka Cibulkova, 24.7
- 22 Sirana Cirstea, 23.8
Stephens is the only American in that top group of players. Keys and Hampton are in the top 50.
Currently the top American women under age 25 (Stephens, Hampton, Keys, Riske, McHale, Davis, and King) will face tough competition if they are to become elite players. In addition to the above mentioned names, they will be challenged by Alize Cornet, France; Mona Barthel, Germany; Urszula Radwanska, Poland; Laura Robson, United Kingdom; Annika Beck, Germany; and Eugenie Bouchard, Canada. Spain, Germany, Eastern Europe, and Russia have excellent junior development programs and the popularity of Li Na is expected to create increased competition from China and other parts of Asia.
It is interesting and entertaining to speculate about who the next great American women players will be. Some of the young Americans will win Grand Slam events, but most will be top-ranked players.
Time will tell!