Is Serena Williams on the Decline?

Some think that Serena Williams is on the decline.

To justify that viewpoint they would argue that she has lost in the finals of the last three Grand Slams to players she should have beaten. Not only that, in 2016 she has won only 1 tournament, she has lost in the finals of 3 tournaments (including 2 grand slams) and she was defeated in the round of 16 in the other tournament.

Even though she is #1 in the world, she is “only” 24-4.

By comparison, #2 ranked Agniewszka Radwanska is 25-7 in 8 tournaments this year. She has won 1 tournament, made it to the semis of 4 tournaments, lost in the round of 16 twice and was defeated in the round of 64 on 1 occasion.

Here is where it gets interesting!

The case that Williams on the decline can be made by saying that:
• She has “only” won 55.6% of the points played this year.
• She has “only” won 62.6% of the games played this year.
• Given the low percentage of points she has won, she is lucky to win 87.1% of her matches.

Compare those stats to Radwanska. Her stats show that:
• She has won 53.7% of the points played this year.
• She has won 59.4% of the games played this year.
• She is not far behind Williams and has won 78.7% of her matches.

The following tables from the WTA website (wtatennis.com) show YTD serving and receiving data (through the French Open) for both women. The difference between #1 and #2 is a reflection of contrasting styles of play.

WILLIAMS SERVICE RECORD

Category Number/%
Aces 186
Double faults 77
1st serve 60.20%
1st serve points won 73%
2nd serve points won 49.60%
Break points faced 145
Break points saved 62.80%
Service games played 273
Service games won 80.20%
Service points won 63.60%

WILLIAMS RETURN RECORD

Category Number/%
1st serve return points won 40.90%
2nd serve return points won 58.50%
Break points opportunities 263
Break points converted 46%
Return games played 270
Return games won 44.80%
Return points won 47.90%
Total points won 55.60%

RADWANSKA SERVICE RECORD
Category Number/%
Aces 81
Double faults 54
1st serve 63.10%
1st serve points won 65.20%
2nd serve points won 45.20%
Break points faced 220
Break points saved 56.40%
Service games played 314
Service games won 69.40%
Service points won 57.80%

RADWANSKA RETURN RECORD YTD,

Category Number/%
1st serve return points won 43.60%
2nd serve return points won 60.20%
Break points opportunities 288
Break points converted 52.40%
Return games played 307
Return games won 49.20%
Return points won 49.60%
Total points won 53.70%

The data shows that Williams is more of a power player and holds an advantage in the percentage of first serve points won and in the percentage of break points saved. As a steadier player, Radwanska holds an advantage in the percentage of return games won.

The difference in the percentage of total points won seems minor (55.6%-53.7%=1.9%); however, it translates to a much larger difference in the percentage of matches won (87.1%-78.7%=8.4%) Clearly, Serena Williams is the most dominant player on the women’s tour.

WTA Rankings Point to Solid Grand Slam Season for Americans

The release of the March 7th WTA rankings portends reasonable success for the American women in the remaining 3 Grand Slams this year.

Serena Williams is the only American woman in the top 10. Without a doubt she will be the player to beat if she remains healthy. Nine countries have players ranked in the top 10. Spain is represented by Muguruza and Suárez Navarro. The average age of the top 10 players is 26.4 years.

Top Ten WTA Through March 7th 2016

Ranking Player Country Age Points
1 Serena Williams United States 34 9,245
2 Angelique Kerber Germany 28 5,700
3 Agnieszka Radwanska Poland 27 5,450
4 Garbiñe Muguruza Spain 22 4,831
5 Simona Halep Romania 24 4,745
6 Carla Suárez Navarro Spain 28 4,015
7 Maria Sharapova Russia 29 3,562
8 Belinda Bencic Switzerland 19 3,505
9 Petra Kvitova Czech Republic 26 3,483
10 Roberta Vinci Italy 33 3,455

There are 13 Americans ranked in the top 100. With the exception of Serena they are excellent players who will occasionally have some great wins, but their lack of points demonstrates they are not capable of consistently competing with the top 10 players. The average age of the American women ranked in the top 100 is 26.7 years. The Williams sisters and Mattek-Sands are the only players over 30.

American Women Ranked in the Top 100

Ranking,Player, Country Age, Points

Ranking Player Age Points
1 Serena Williams 34 9,245
12 Venus Williams 36 3,082
22 Sloane Stephens 23 2,215
24 Madison Keys 21 2,060
38 Coco Vandeweghe 24 1,271
52 Varvara Lepchenko 30 1,057
58 Madison Brengle 26 1,005
62 Christina McHale 24 990
80 Irina Falconi 26 800
88 Bethanie Mattek-Sands 31 744
91 Alison Riske 26 733
95 Nicole Gibbs 23 714
99 Lauren Davis 22 678

Looking ahead to the remaining Grand Slams, Venus, Bethanie Mattek-Sands, and Varvara Lepchenko are expected to play solid tennis. They may have some upset victories; however, given their age, it is unlikely they will win any tournaments.

Several years ago some coaches felt that Sloane Stephens would follow in the footsteps of the Williams sisters. To date she has been less successful in the Grand Slam events than others. Fortunately, she has time on her side.

Unlike Stephens, Madison Keys has demonstrated that she is the real deal. Her best showing was in 2015 when she reached the semifinals at the Australian Open.

The remaining players have shown flashes of brilliance at times, but have not excelled in the Grand Slams. They are young and this may be their breakout year.

Next Stop, the French Open on May 16th.

American Tennis Without the Williams Sisters

Since they first hit the tour, Venus and Serena Williams have been the face of women’s tennis in the U.S. The following tables show the gap between the Williams sisters in age, ranking, and earnings.

Seventeen American women were entered in the first Grand Slam of the year, the 2016 Australian Open. The following table shows the age, earnings, and rank of the first-round women losers who represented the U.S. in Melbourne.

Name Age Career Earnings February 9 Ranking
Alison Riske 26 $1.7 million 92nd
Christina McHale 24 $2.2 million 62nd
Sloane Stephens 22 $3.7 million 25th
Anna Tatishvili 26 $1.4 million 116th
Coco Vandeweghe 24 $2.2 million 46th
Samantha Crawford 20 $277,000 110th
Victoria Duval 20 $290,000 587th
Venus Williams 35 $32.6 million 12th
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 30 $4.5 million 77th

The second and third round losers are listed in the table below.

Name Age Career Earnings February 9 Ranking
Irina Falconi 25 $1.2 million 75th
Nicole Gibbs 23 $730 105th
Vania King 27 $3.6 million 227th
Varvara Lepchenko 29 $3.3 million 49th
Madison Brengle 25 $1.2 million 57th
Lauren Davis 22 $1.4 million 99th

The following table lists the same information finalist Serena Williams and Madison Keys, who reached the round of 16.

Name Age Career Earnings February 9 Ranking
Madison Keys 21 $3.1 million 24th
Serena Williams 34 $75.4 million 1st

Despite being the oldest American players, the Williams sisters still continue to dominate in the rankings. It is unlikely the Americans who are 24 or older will make it into the top ten – they are able to compete internationally, but they are not elite players.

Given the track record of the USTA Player Development program, it is not a comforting thought to envision what American tennis will look like without the Williams sisters.

Winning and Losing – Gabriela Sabitini

Most world-class athletes create the appearance they have never struggled with winning and losing during their careers. A closer look shows that is not the case.

Consider the case of Gabriela Sabitini. Sabatini reached number 3 in the world, but never attained the top ranking. Dealing with the challenges of winning and losing may have prevented her from reaching the top spot.

About a year and a half ago Sport 24 reported that winning and losing did not come easy for Sabitini. At times she creatively took the easy way out. She intentionally lost matches as a junior player to avoid having to talk to reporters.

“When I was younger and thought that I had to talk after winning a tournament, I often lost in the semifinals so I did not have to. It was that bad!” Sabatini told the Argentine newspaper La Nacion.

“I was very introverted. I had some issues at school because I was very inward-looking,” she said.

Sabatini, now 43, said her shyness was a major problem.

“I got very nervous at that point. But at the same time I was very competitive and I got frustrated when I did not win,” she said.

“I might lose the first set, when I was little, and I gave up on the match just because I was so angry that I could not bear having lost the first set.”

“I think my fame and my public profile had something to do with the fact that I did not become world number one.

“I loved to play, I was competitive, I wanted to win, that was all I knew. In the first few years tennis was a game. Later, it becomes a job,” she said. (October 18, 2013 http://www.sport24.co.za/)

The story about Sabitini’s challenges with winning and losing is old news, but the saga of athletes struggling to deal with winning and losing is an ongoing story for junior and world-class athletes in all sports.

How do you deal with winning and losing?

winning and losing

Gladys Heldman – A Daughter’s Perspective

The French Open and Wimbledon have recently finished and the world’s top players are focused on the U.S. Open and the tournaments leading up to it.

So far this year Li Na, Maria Sharapova, and Petra Kvitova have each won a Grand Slam. Given the depth of the women’s pro tour, there will likely be a different winner for the U.S. Open.

If Gladys Heldman was alive today, she would look on with pride and amazement at the accomplishments of these women. You see, she was responsible for laying the foundation for the women’s pro tour almost 50 years ago.

In 2012, the WTA recognized her significant contributions to women’s tennis by posthumously honoring her with the Georgina Clark Mother Award. Not only did Heldman change tennis, but she played a role in advancing the importance of women in business and society.

Periodically, it is important to note the accomplishments and battles that have been fought by those who preceded us, whether it is in sports, business, or life. Individuals such as Heldman made the sport of tennis and life better for generations to come. All athletes and sports fans who enjoy women’s professional tennis owe a debt of gratitude to Gladys Heldman.

The following is the text of the acceptance speech given by her daughter Julie Heldman at the WTA award ceremony.

“Thank you for honoring my mother with the Georgina Clark Mother Award. This award is certainly not because Gladys Heldman was a traditional mother. She was unapologetically unconventional. She didn’t cook, she didn’t clean, she didn’t vacuum. She was uninterested in makeup and frilly dresses. But she was a helluva role model. She taught us to value education and success, she was committed to helping others, and she stood up for what she believed in.

This weekend we are celebrating the founding of the Family Circle Cup and the founding of the women’s pro tour. My mother had a role in the founding of this tournament, and she was the driving force, the shepherd, and the guiding light for the beginning of the women’s pro tour. Yet my mother never took a dime from women’s tennis. In fact she dug deep into her own pocket.

Here’s why she was uniquely qualified to be the founder of the modern women’s tennis tour:

She was extraordinarily hard working. She graduated from Stanford in three years, at the top of her class. In 1953, she started, owned, edited, and published World Tennis, which became the world’s largest and most influential tennis magazine. When she sold the magazine in 1972, she liked to say she was replaced by seven men. That’s probably true.

She was committed to unlimited opportunities for women. In the 1950s, she was often asked “Isn’t it nice your husband lets you work?” My father was a distinguished scientist and businessman who had married a force of nature, and nothing was stopping her.

She had a bully pulpit. For years she used her editorial pages to campaign for open tennis, and when that battle was won in 1968, she championed women’s tennis, calling for more tournaments and bigger prize money for the women pros.

She was a self starter who was driven to succeed. She had no experience in journalism, but she taught herself to write and edit articles and to sell ads, the life blood of magazines. I remember her each month going without sleep for days, typing furiously, chain-smoking cigarettes, and laying out articles all over her bed, all to send the magazine to press on time. She was never one day late.

She was a phenomenal, creative promoter who batted 1,000. Her most successful promotion before the women’s pro tour was the 1962 US Championships at Forest Hills. The field had been weak for years, because top tennis players were playing in Europe for bigger under-the-table money. No one knew how to solve the problem. So Gladys took over. She and a group of friends ponied up enough money to jet the players in from Europe and treat them like kings. The tournament was a huge success. She saved Forest Hills.

She focused on the goal and didn’t back down, even when she ruffled feathers. The Forest Hills promotion is a perfect example. The men who ran the United States Lawn Tennis Association resented her coming in and doing a better job than they had. After her astonishing success, they kicked her out. She succeeded in part because she was headstrong and sometimes difficult.

She knew everyone in tennis. She attracted advertisers by cold-calling the heads of big companies. If she struck out, she’d go to Tiffany’s and buy herself something expensive. She owned three gold cigarette lighters, but she also got lots of ads and lots of business connections.  She brought Joe Cullman, Chairman of the Board of Phillip Morris, into tennis, and his company became a major presence.

She was dedicated to helping tennis players. Without any publicity, she paid for players who couldn’t afford to compete. At a time when opportunities were few for players of color, she reached out a hand to those in need. All of these traits came in handy when she founded the women’s pro tour.

Her work ethic led her to ignore her busy schedule and help the women players. At Forest Hills in 1970, the women were furious that the upcoming Los Angeles tournament had a prize money ratio of 8 to 1 in favor of the men. Billie Jean King, Rosie Casals and Nancy Richey approached my mother, asking her to help start a competing event. My mother had a magazine to run, there were people from far and wide to meet at the Open, and my parents were in the process of moving from New York City to Houston. Yet when she heard the women’s cry for help, she jumped into action.

She started immediately. Within days she gained verbal permission from the men in power, contacted people in Houston to run the tournament, and rounded up the players. Yet when the Houston tournament was about to start, the men in power made an about face, threatening to suspend any player who competed in Houston. Those suspensions could cause havoc for the players and the club. So Gladys reassured them all.

Her creativity as a promoter led to a unique solution. In 1970 the rules distinguishing amateurs and pros were complex. To make the tournament work, my mother creatively made all the players contract pros for one week by signing them up for $1. That solution protected the players and the club.

Her connection to Joe Cullman was vital. She called him and got Virginia Slims, his company’s new women’s brand, to support the tournament.

That first event was a great success. The nine of us stood up for ourselves and for women’s tennis. Virginia Slims had a public relations coup. And after the finals, the Original 9 ate spaghetti dinner at our house and then chose my mother to head a women’s pro tour. Before the lights were out that night, she attacked her Rolodex, contacting anyone vaguely capable of promoting or sponsoring a women’s pro tournament. She signed up Virginia Slims to be the tour sponsor. And she never stopped reaching out to women players, supporting those who had already committed to the Virginia Slims tour, and enticing those who hadn’t.

For the next two-and-a-half years, my mother was the force behind the scenes, and Billie Jean King was the tour’s greatest star, without whom the tour would not have succeeded. And the rest of us players worked hard, putting our careers and the future of women’s tennis on the line.

Yet some of my mother’s strengths were also her downfall. Those years were a rough go for her. She was still running World Tennis. There were fights with tennis associations and unreliable promoters, and it took a huge toll on her. And then she was booted out of women’s pro tennis when the Virginia Slims Tour agreed to combine with the rival USLTA women’s tennis tour. Why? She was outspoken, she was mercurial, and she was difficult.

Thank heavens Gladys Heldman was difficult. It meant she stood up for the things she believed in. It meant she wouldn’t back down. It means she and the Original 9 players started what has become the most successful women’s pro tour in all of sports.

– Julie Heldman, April 6, 2012

source: http://www.wtatennis.com/news/article/2733273/title/gladys-heldman-a-daughters-perspective

 

Do Tall Women Have a Better Chance to Succeed at Tennis?

Recently a group of tennis professionals were talking about how they thought female professional athletes were taller than the average population. One of the questions raised in the discussion was, “Can shorter females realistically aspire to play tennis at a highly competitive or professional level?”

As a result, the height of the 128 women participants at Wimbledon 2014 was collected from online websites and the distribution and average heights were calculated.

The women players at Wimbledon 2014 were taller than the general female population. On average (mean, median, mode) the Wimbledon participants were 5’9”. This compares to an average of 5’4″ for the U.S. (CDC).

  • 21.1% of the women professionals who played at Wimbledon 2014 were 5’6” or shorter.
  • 68.0% of the women professionals who played at Wimbledon 2014 were between 5’7” and 5’11”.
  • 10.9% of the women professionals who played at Wimbledon 2014 were 6’0” or taller.
  • The shortest player was Kurumi Nara and the tallest players were Maria Sharapova and Naomi Broady.

While it is possible for shorter females to play tennis at a highly competitive level, tall women are more likely to succeed.

tall women at Wimbledon 2014

 

 

What’s Coming Down the Pipeline for American Women’s Tennis?

For the past couple of years the American women have had respectable showings in the Grand Slam events, in large part due to the dominance of Serena Williams. What lies ahead for American women’s tennis when Serena retires? Is the USTA Player Development Program getting the job done?

On a positive note, there are more American players in the top 100 than any other country. Unfortunately, a closer look at the January 6, 2014 rankings shows that most of the American women are not in the upper echelon, i.e. only two are ranked in the top 25. Right or wrong, this creates the perception that the focus of the USTA Player Development program is on quantity rather than quality.

The American women, their age, and their ranking in the top 100 follow:

  • 1  Serena Williams, 32
  • 13  Sloane Stephens, 20
  • 28  Jamie Hampton, 24
  • 36  Madison Keys, 18
  • 38  Venus Williams, 33
  • 48  Bethanie Mattek-Sands, 28
  • 52  Varvara Lepchenko, 27
  • 55  Alison Riske, 23
  • 65  Christina McHale, 21
  • 67  Lauren Davis, 20
  • 71  Vania King, 20.

The average age of the players in the top 100 is slightly over 25 years old. Four of the American women are older than 25 and 7 are younger. The average age of the American players in the top 100 is 24 years old.

From a practical standpoint, an argument can be made that the younger players will become difference makers as the older players retire or their level of play drops off. If that argument holds, then the 7 American women below the mean are likely to move up and those above the mean will move on.

This viewpoint is supported by the data. Statistically there is a slightly negative correlation between the ranking of the top 100 women players and their age. In other words, the higher ranked players are older and the lower ranked players are younger (see chart below).

Thirty of the top 100 players are 27 years old or older and 9 are in the top 25. Of the 4 Americans in this age group, Serena Williams is the only one in the top 25.

Twenty of the top 100 players are either 25 or 26 and 7 are in the top 25. No Americans are in this age category.

In other words, there are good players at all levels, but 16 of the players are at least 25 years old. For the younger players, the good news is that most will move on in the next 5 years.

The remaining 50 players in the top 100 are less than 25 years old. Nine of them are currently in the top 25. Their rank and age are listed below:

  • 2 Victoria Azarenka, 24.5
  • 5 Agnieszka Radwanska, 24.9
  • 6 Petra Kvitova, 23.8
  • 10 Caroline Wozniacki, 23.5
  • 11 Simona Halep, 22.3
  • 13  Sloane Stephens, 20.8
  • 15 Sabine Lisicki, 24.3
  • 21 Dominka Cibulkova, 24.7
  • 22 Sirana Cirstea, 23.8

Stephens is the only American in that top group of players. Keys and Hampton are in the top 50.

Currently the top American women under age 25 (Stephens, Hampton, Keys, Riske, McHale, Davis, and King) will face tough competition if they are to become elite players. In addition to the above mentioned names, they will be challenged by Alize Cornet, France; Mona Barthel, Germany; Urszula Radwanska, Poland; Laura Robson, United Kingdom; Annika Beck, Germany; and Eugenie Bouchard, Canada. Spain, Germany, Eastern Europe, and Russia have excellent junior development programs and the popularity of Li Na is expected to create increased competition from China and other parts of Asia.

It is interesting and entertaining to speculate about who the next great American women players will be. Some of the young Americans will win Grand Slam events, but most will be top-ranked players.

Age of ranking WTA players - Is the USTA player development program getting the job done?
Age of Ranking WTA Players.

Time will tell!

 

 

Strong is Beautiful

The Women’s Tennis Association recently released its ad campaign Strong is Beautiful.

The effort was deemed necessary to maintain sponsorships, ensure attendance at events, and viewership on television. Despite growth in U.S. tennis participation, the WTA took a proactive stance because of a challenging global economy and the lack of dominant players on the circuit.

Some say the campaign is sexist and exploits the women athletes. Others think the campaign is a brilliant means of portraying the qualities of a champion.

The verbiage from several of the ads follows:

Ana Ivanovic
“During the War in Serbia they bombed us all day and all night, but if I got up early I could practice before the planes came.”

Kim Clijsters
“Before I had a baby I devoted all my time to tennis. Afterwards, I had to compromise. Now, I devote 100% of my time to the baby and 100% to tennis..”

Serena Williams
“Before every slam I pick out 7 outfits. SEVEN – one for every match I need to win. I wouldn’t pick seven outfits if I didn’t plan on wearing them all.”

Li Na
“China is a country of 1.3 billion people. Yet, we’ve never had a #1 player or a Grand Slam Champion. No pressure.”

Note: Li Na won the 2011 French Open Championships (after this ad campaign was released).

Strong Is Beautiful - Dominika Cibulkova
Strong Is Beautiful – Dominika Cibulkova