Is Serena Williams on the Decline?

Some think that Serena Williams is on the decline.

To justify that viewpoint they would argue that she has lost in the finals of the last three Grand Slams to players she should have beaten. Not only that, in 2016 she has won only 1 tournament, she has lost in the finals of 3 tournaments (including 2 grand slams) and she was defeated in the round of 16 in the other tournament.

Even though she is #1 in the world, she is “only” 24-4.

By comparison, #2 ranked Agniewszka Radwanska is 25-7 in 8 tournaments this year. She has won 1 tournament, made it to the semis of 4 tournaments, lost in the round of 16 twice and was defeated in the round of 64 on 1 occasion.

Here is where it gets interesting!

The case that Williams on the decline can be made by saying that:
• She has “only” won 55.6% of the points played this year.
• She has “only” won 62.6% of the games played this year.
• Given the low percentage of points she has won, she is lucky to win 87.1% of her matches.

Compare those stats to Radwanska. Her stats show that:
• She has won 53.7% of the points played this year.
• She has won 59.4% of the games played this year.
• She is not far behind Williams and has won 78.7% of her matches.

The following tables from the WTA website (wtatennis.com) show YTD serving and receiving data (through the French Open) for both women. The difference between #1 and #2 is a reflection of contrasting styles of play.

WILLIAMS SERVICE RECORD

Category Number/%
Aces 186
Double faults 77
1st serve 60.20%
1st serve points won 73%
2nd serve points won 49.60%
Break points faced 145
Break points saved 62.80%
Service games played 273
Service games won 80.20%
Service points won 63.60%

WILLIAMS RETURN RECORD

Category Number/%
1st serve return points won 40.90%
2nd serve return points won 58.50%
Break points opportunities 263
Break points converted 46%
Return games played 270
Return games won 44.80%
Return points won 47.90%
Total points won 55.60%

RADWANSKA SERVICE RECORD
Category Number/%
Aces 81
Double faults 54
1st serve 63.10%
1st serve points won 65.20%
2nd serve points won 45.20%
Break points faced 220
Break points saved 56.40%
Service games played 314
Service games won 69.40%
Service points won 57.80%

RADWANSKA RETURN RECORD YTD,

Category Number/%
1st serve return points won 43.60%
2nd serve return points won 60.20%
Break points opportunities 288
Break points converted 52.40%
Return games played 307
Return games won 49.20%
Return points won 49.60%
Total points won 53.70%

The data shows that Williams is more of a power player and holds an advantage in the percentage of first serve points won and in the percentage of break points saved. As a steadier player, Radwanska holds an advantage in the percentage of return games won.

The difference in the percentage of total points won seems minor (55.6%-53.7%=1.9%); however, it translates to a much larger difference in the percentage of matches won (87.1%-78.7%=8.4%) Clearly, Serena Williams is the most dominant player on the women’s tour.

USTA Player Development Program – Quantity not Quality

As the U.S. Open approaches, the USTA press corps will be out in force to brag about the great crop of young American women produced by the USTA Player Development program.

Unfortunately for the Americans and the USTA, other countries are producing players who can actually win in the Grand Slams. To date, the USTA Player Development program has produced a contingency of players who will be eliminated by the third round. Quantity will be the mantra for the young American women in the 2014 U.S. Open, not quality.

The August 18th WTA rankings show the USA is at the top of the leader board for the greatest number of players in the top 50. There are 22 countries with players ranked in the top 50:

  • USA – 8
  • Czech Republic – 5
  • Italy – 4
  • Russia – 4
  • China – 3
  • Germany – 3
  • Serbia -3

The following countries each have two players ranked in the top 50:

  • Australia
  • France
  • Kazakhstan
  • Slovakia
  • Spain

The following countries each have one player ranked in the top 50:

  • Belgium
  • Canada
  • Denmark
  • Estonia
  • Japan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Ukraine
  • United Kingdom

A closer look at the rankings shows that Serena Williams is at the top of the list. Her sister Venus is ranked 20th. Sloane Stephens is ranked 22nd and Madison Keys is 28th.

The remaining four American women are far from being world-beaters. They are ranked between 39th and 48th and include Coco Vandeweghe, Christina McHale, Alison Riske, and Lauren Davis.

The Americans other than the Williams sisters are 19 to 24 years old. Contemporaries of this group include Halep, Kvitova, Bouchard, Wozniacki, Krunic, Cornet, and Bencic. Elite players who are slightly older include Radwanska, Cibulkova, and Azarenka. None of the young Americans have demonstrated the ability to compete against these players with success.

Most of the top 50 American women are young. Time will tell if they will mature and improve or if they continue to be cannon fodder for the world’s elite players.

 

Gladys Heldman – A Daughter’s Perspective

The French Open and Wimbledon have recently finished and the world’s top players are focused on the U.S. Open and the tournaments leading up to it.

So far this year Li Na, Maria Sharapova, and Petra Kvitova have each won a Grand Slam. Given the depth of the women’s pro tour, there will likely be a different winner for the U.S. Open.

If Gladys Heldman was alive today, she would look on with pride and amazement at the accomplishments of these women. You see, she was responsible for laying the foundation for the women’s pro tour almost 50 years ago.

In 2012, the WTA recognized her significant contributions to women’s tennis by posthumously honoring her with the Georgina Clark Mother Award. Not only did Heldman change tennis, but she played a role in advancing the importance of women in business and society.

Periodically, it is important to note the accomplishments and battles that have been fought by those who preceded us, whether it is in sports, business, or life. Individuals such as Heldman made the sport of tennis and life better for generations to come. All athletes and sports fans who enjoy women’s professional tennis owe a debt of gratitude to Gladys Heldman.

The following is the text of the acceptance speech given by her daughter Julie Heldman at the WTA award ceremony.

“Thank you for honoring my mother with the Georgina Clark Mother Award. This award is certainly not because Gladys Heldman was a traditional mother. She was unapologetically unconventional. She didn’t cook, she didn’t clean, she didn’t vacuum. She was uninterested in makeup and frilly dresses. But she was a helluva role model. She taught us to value education and success, she was committed to helping others, and she stood up for what she believed in.

This weekend we are celebrating the founding of the Family Circle Cup and the founding of the women’s pro tour. My mother had a role in the founding of this tournament, and she was the driving force, the shepherd, and the guiding light for the beginning of the women’s pro tour. Yet my mother never took a dime from women’s tennis. In fact she dug deep into her own pocket.

Here’s why she was uniquely qualified to be the founder of the modern women’s tennis tour:

She was extraordinarily hard working. She graduated from Stanford in three years, at the top of her class. In 1953, she started, owned, edited, and published World Tennis, which became the world’s largest and most influential tennis magazine. When she sold the magazine in 1972, she liked to say she was replaced by seven men. That’s probably true.

She was committed to unlimited opportunities for women. In the 1950s, she was often asked “Isn’t it nice your husband lets you work?” My father was a distinguished scientist and businessman who had married a force of nature, and nothing was stopping her.

She had a bully pulpit. For years she used her editorial pages to campaign for open tennis, and when that battle was won in 1968, she championed women’s tennis, calling for more tournaments and bigger prize money for the women pros.

She was a self starter who was driven to succeed. She had no experience in journalism, but she taught herself to write and edit articles and to sell ads, the life blood of magazines. I remember her each month going without sleep for days, typing furiously, chain-smoking cigarettes, and laying out articles all over her bed, all to send the magazine to press on time. She was never one day late.

She was a phenomenal, creative promoter who batted 1,000. Her most successful promotion before the women’s pro tour was the 1962 US Championships at Forest Hills. The field had been weak for years, because top tennis players were playing in Europe for bigger under-the-table money. No one knew how to solve the problem. So Gladys took over. She and a group of friends ponied up enough money to jet the players in from Europe and treat them like kings. The tournament was a huge success. She saved Forest Hills.

She focused on the goal and didn’t back down, even when she ruffled feathers. The Forest Hills promotion is a perfect example. The men who ran the United States Lawn Tennis Association resented her coming in and doing a better job than they had. After her astonishing success, they kicked her out. She succeeded in part because she was headstrong and sometimes difficult.

She knew everyone in tennis. She attracted advertisers by cold-calling the heads of big companies. If she struck out, she’d go to Tiffany’s and buy herself something expensive. She owned three gold cigarette lighters, but she also got lots of ads and lots of business connections.  She brought Joe Cullman, Chairman of the Board of Phillip Morris, into tennis, and his company became a major presence.

She was dedicated to helping tennis players. Without any publicity, she paid for players who couldn’t afford to compete. At a time when opportunities were few for players of color, she reached out a hand to those in need. All of these traits came in handy when she founded the women’s pro tour.

Her work ethic led her to ignore her busy schedule and help the women players. At Forest Hills in 1970, the women were furious that the upcoming Los Angeles tournament had a prize money ratio of 8 to 1 in favor of the men. Billie Jean King, Rosie Casals and Nancy Richey approached my mother, asking her to help start a competing event. My mother had a magazine to run, there were people from far and wide to meet at the Open, and my parents were in the process of moving from New York City to Houston. Yet when she heard the women’s cry for help, she jumped into action.

She started immediately. Within days she gained verbal permission from the men in power, contacted people in Houston to run the tournament, and rounded up the players. Yet when the Houston tournament was about to start, the men in power made an about face, threatening to suspend any player who competed in Houston. Those suspensions could cause havoc for the players and the club. So Gladys reassured them all.

Her creativity as a promoter led to a unique solution. In 1970 the rules distinguishing amateurs and pros were complex. To make the tournament work, my mother creatively made all the players contract pros for one week by signing them up for $1. That solution protected the players and the club.

Her connection to Joe Cullman was vital. She called him and got Virginia Slims, his company’s new women’s brand, to support the tournament.

That first event was a great success. The nine of us stood up for ourselves and for women’s tennis. Virginia Slims had a public relations coup. And after the finals, the Original 9 ate spaghetti dinner at our house and then chose my mother to head a women’s pro tour. Before the lights were out that night, she attacked her Rolodex, contacting anyone vaguely capable of promoting or sponsoring a women’s pro tournament. She signed up Virginia Slims to be the tour sponsor. And she never stopped reaching out to women players, supporting those who had already committed to the Virginia Slims tour, and enticing those who hadn’t.

For the next two-and-a-half years, my mother was the force behind the scenes, and Billie Jean King was the tour’s greatest star, without whom the tour would not have succeeded. And the rest of us players worked hard, putting our careers and the future of women’s tennis on the line.

Yet some of my mother’s strengths were also her downfall. Those years were a rough go for her. She was still running World Tennis. There were fights with tennis associations and unreliable promoters, and it took a huge toll on her. And then she was booted out of women’s pro tennis when the Virginia Slims Tour agreed to combine with the rival USLTA women’s tennis tour. Why? She was outspoken, she was mercurial, and she was difficult.

Thank heavens Gladys Heldman was difficult. It meant she stood up for the things she believed in. It meant she wouldn’t back down. It means she and the Original 9 players started what has become the most successful women’s pro tour in all of sports.

– Julie Heldman, April 6, 2012

source: http://www.wtatennis.com/news/article/2733273/title/gladys-heldman-a-daughters-perspective

 

What’s Coming Down the Pipeline for American Women’s Tennis?

For the past couple of years the American women have had respectable showings in the Grand Slam events, in large part due to the dominance of Serena Williams. What lies ahead for American women’s tennis when Serena retires? Is the USTA Player Development Program getting the job done?

On a positive note, there are more American players in the top 100 than any other country. Unfortunately, a closer look at the January 6, 2014 rankings shows that most of the American women are not in the upper echelon, i.e. only two are ranked in the top 25. Right or wrong, this creates the perception that the focus of the USTA Player Development program is on quantity rather than quality.

The American women, their age, and their ranking in the top 100 follow:

  • 1  Serena Williams, 32
  • 13  Sloane Stephens, 20
  • 28  Jamie Hampton, 24
  • 36  Madison Keys, 18
  • 38  Venus Williams, 33
  • 48  Bethanie Mattek-Sands, 28
  • 52  Varvara Lepchenko, 27
  • 55  Alison Riske, 23
  • 65  Christina McHale, 21
  • 67  Lauren Davis, 20
  • 71  Vania King, 20.

The average age of the players in the top 100 is slightly over 25 years old. Four of the American women are older than 25 and 7 are younger. The average age of the American players in the top 100 is 24 years old.

From a practical standpoint, an argument can be made that the younger players will become difference makers as the older players retire or their level of play drops off. If that argument holds, then the 7 American women below the mean are likely to move up and those above the mean will move on.

This viewpoint is supported by the data. Statistically there is a slightly negative correlation between the ranking of the top 100 women players and their age. In other words, the higher ranked players are older and the lower ranked players are younger (see chart below).

Thirty of the top 100 players are 27 years old or older and 9 are in the top 25. Of the 4 Americans in this age group, Serena Williams is the only one in the top 25.

Twenty of the top 100 players are either 25 or 26 and 7 are in the top 25. No Americans are in this age category.

In other words, there are good players at all levels, but 16 of the players are at least 25 years old. For the younger players, the good news is that most will move on in the next 5 years.

The remaining 50 players in the top 100 are less than 25 years old. Nine of them are currently in the top 25. Their rank and age are listed below:

  • 2 Victoria Azarenka, 24.5
  • 5 Agnieszka Radwanska, 24.9
  • 6 Petra Kvitova, 23.8
  • 10 Caroline Wozniacki, 23.5
  • 11 Simona Halep, 22.3
  • 13  Sloane Stephens, 20.8
  • 15 Sabine Lisicki, 24.3
  • 21 Dominka Cibulkova, 24.7
  • 22 Sirana Cirstea, 23.8

Stephens is the only American in that top group of players. Keys and Hampton are in the top 50.

Currently the top American women under age 25 (Stephens, Hampton, Keys, Riske, McHale, Davis, and King) will face tough competition if they are to become elite players. In addition to the above mentioned names, they will be challenged by Alize Cornet, France; Mona Barthel, Germany; Urszula Radwanska, Poland; Laura Robson, United Kingdom; Annika Beck, Germany; and Eugenie Bouchard, Canada. Spain, Germany, Eastern Europe, and Russia have excellent junior development programs and the popularity of Li Na is expected to create increased competition from China and other parts of Asia.

It is interesting and entertaining to speculate about who the next great American women players will be. Some of the young Americans will win Grand Slam events, but most will be top-ranked players.

Age of ranking WTA players - Is the USTA player development program getting the job done?
Age of Ranking WTA Players.

Time will tell!

 

 

USTA Women’s Player Development – Quantity or Quality?

After dominating the women’s circuit in 2013, it was no surprise to see Serena Williams’ name at the top of the WTA January 6, 2014 rankings. Given the global appeal of the sport it was also no surprise that players from 10 countries filled out the top 10 slots.

  1. Serena Williams  United States
  2. Victoria Azarenka  Belarus
  3. Maria Sharapova  Russia
  4. Na Li  China
  5. Agnieszka Radwanska  Poland
  6. Petra Kvitova  Czech Republic
  7. Sara Errani  Italy
  8. Jelena Jankovic  Serbia
  9. Angelique Kerber  Germany
  10. Caroline Wozniacki  Denmark.

Only two Americans earned spots in the top 25. In addition to Serena Williams, Sloane Stephens was ranked 13th. The top 25 included players from 16 countries. The following six countries had multiple players in the top 25:

  • 5 Russia
  • 2 Germany
  • 2 Italy
  • 2 Romania
  • 2 Serbia
  • 2 United States.

Players from 37 countries were ranked in the top 100. The following 21 countries had multiple players in the top 100:

  • 11 United States
  • 7 Germany
  • 6 Italy
  • 6 Russia
  • 6 Spain
  • 5 Czech Republic
  • 5 Slovakia
  • 4 China
  • 4 France
  • 4 Japan
  • 4 Romania
  • 3 Serbia
  • 3 Ukraine
  • 2 Austria
  • 2 Belarus
  • 2 Belgium
  • 2 Croatia
  • 2 Israel
  • 2 Kazakhstan
  • 2 Poland
  • 2 Switzerland

A closer look at the rankings shows that most of the Americans women are not in the upper echelon.  The American women and their ranking in the top 100 follow:

  • 1  Serena Williams
  • 13  Sloane Stephens
  • 28  Jamie Hampton
  • 36  Madison Keys
  • 38  Venus Williams
  • 48  Bethanie Mattek-Sands
  • 52  Varvara Lepchenko
  • 55  Alison Riske
  • 65  Christina McHale
  • 67  Lauren Davis
  • 71  Vania King

On a positive note, there are more American players in the top 100 than any other country. On the downside, Serena Williams and Sloane Stephens are the only impact players.

Clearly, the focus of the USTA Player Development is quantity rather than quality. Time will tell whether Stephens and her younger counterparts will follow in the footsteps of the Williams sisters and someday become difference-makers.

 

Wimbledon 2013 – Upsets or Changing of the Guard

Most sports enthusiasts expected the Cubs to win the World Series before either Marion Bartoli (seeded 15th) or Sabine Lasicki (seeded 23rd) reached the finals of Wimbledon 2013.  Based on their seeds they were projected to exit the tourney in the round of 16 and 32.

With due respect to both players, the consensus was that the Jamaicans would win the Olympic bobsledding gold medal before Bartoli would reach the finals at the All England Lawn Tennis Club in the same year as Lasicki.  Their presence in the finals raises the question, “Were the upsets at Wimbledon 2013 an anomaly or were they a sign that a new era of women were joining the top ranks?”

While it is an accomplishment to be ranked in the top 10, only 5 of the top-ranked women (rankings prior to Wimbledon), have won Grand Slam women’s singles events.  The players and their birth years are:

  • Serena Williams  1981
  • Victoria Azarenka  1989
  • Maria Sharapova  1987
  • Agnieszka Radwanska  1989
  • Sara Errani  1987
  • Na Li  1982
  • Angelique Kerber  1988
  • Petra Kvitova  1990
  • Caroline Wozniacki  1990
  • Maria Kirlenko  1987

On average the top 10 players are 26 years old. While this is young by most standards, some of the upsets at Wimbledon are an indication that about half of the top 10 are closer to the end of their careers than to their peak competitive years and their ability to win a Grand Slam singles title.  Serena Williams and Na Li are both over the 30 while Kvitova and Wozniacki are the youngsters at 23.

The American women have a chance to make their presence felt as the changing of the guard continues to unfold over the next 18 months. The 14 American women Wimbledon entrants and their birth year follow:

  • Serena Williams  1981
  • Alison Riske  1990
  • Mallory Burdette  1991
  • Bethanie Mattek-Sands  1985
  • Madison Keys  1995
  • Varvara Lepchenko  1986
  • Sloane Stephens  1993
  • Jamie Hampton  1990
  • Christina McHale 1992
  • Alexa Glatch  1989
  • Lauren Davis  1993
  • Melanie Oudin  1991
  • Coco Vandeweghe  1991
  • Vania King  1989

Nine of the players lost in the first round:

  • Burdette, Hampton, Davis, Oudin, and Vandeweghe are 23 years old or younger.
  • Mattek-Sands, Lepchenko, Glatch, and King are at least 24 years old.

Most of the first round losers are young and have potential for success in future Grand Slams.

Overall the American women won 12 matches and lost 14. First round winners included Serena Williams, Alison Riske, Madison Keys, Sloane Stephens, and Christina McHale. With the exception of Williams the other four are 18 to 23 years old.  McHale lost in the second round and Riske and Keys were third round losers. Williams was upset in the round of 16 and Sloane Stephens lost in the quarterfinals.

Stephens has demonstrated that she is a force to be reckoned with.  Her losses in the 2013 Grand Slams follow:

  • Australian Open – lost to Azarenka (winner) in the semifinals.
  • French Open – lost to Sharapova (finalist) in the quarterfinals.
  • Wimbledon – lost to Bartoli (winner) in the quarterfinals.

On August 26, the U.S. Open begins.  At that time the next step in the evolution of women’s tennis will be showcased. It will be interesting to watch the role that the American women play in the changing of the guard.

 

Strong is Beautiful

The Women’s Tennis Association recently released its ad campaign Strong is Beautiful.

The effort was deemed necessary to maintain sponsorships, ensure attendance at events, and viewership on television. Despite growth in U.S. tennis participation, the WTA took a proactive stance because of a challenging global economy and the lack of dominant players on the circuit.

Some say the campaign is sexist and exploits the women athletes. Others think the campaign is a brilliant means of portraying the qualities of a champion.

The verbiage from several of the ads follows:

Ana Ivanovic
“During the War in Serbia they bombed us all day and all night, but if I got up early I could practice before the planes came.”

Kim Clijsters
“Before I had a baby I devoted all my time to tennis. Afterwards, I had to compromise. Now, I devote 100% of my time to the baby and 100% to tennis..”

Serena Williams
“Before every slam I pick out 7 outfits. SEVEN – one for every match I need to win. I wouldn’t pick seven outfits if I didn’t plan on wearing them all.”

Li Na
“China is a country of 1.3 billion people. Yet, we’ve never had a #1 player or a Grand Slam Champion. No pressure.”

Note: Li Na won the 2011 French Open Championships (after this ad campaign was released).

Strong Is Beautiful - Dominika Cibulkova
Strong Is Beautiful – Dominika Cibulkova