In May, 2007 Theodore Modis published research showing that a correlation had been observed between the U.S. Gross Domestic Product and the number of sunspots. As well, there was a strong correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the number of sunspots. The data cover 80 years of history. (The report is available at www.sciencedirect.com.)
Similarly, a strong correlation exists between World Series winners and the winner of the presidential elections. In addition, there is a close tie between the fortunes of the Washington Redskins in their last game prior to the presidential election and the ability of the incumbent party to maintain control of the White House.
A review of the data in the 19 elections between 1940 and 2012 shows that the World Series predictive model has a weaker overall record than Redskins model, but the baseball model accurately predicted the win by the Democrats in 2012.
The World Series Predictive Model
In the past 19 elections, the World Series Predictive Model was correct 73.6% of the time (14 of 19). It corrected foretold that Barack Obama would be elected president. In summary:
• Seven times the National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
• Two times the National League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was incorrect.
• Seven times the American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
• Three times the American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
The details are listed below:
1940-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1944-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1948-The American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1952-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1956-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1960-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1964-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1968-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1972-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1976-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1980-The National League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1984-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1988-The National League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1992-The American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1996-The American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
2000-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
2004-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
2008-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
2012-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
The Redskins Predictive Model
Over time, the Redskins Model has been correct 89.5% of the time (17 of 19); however, it has missed two of the last three elections.
In summary:
• Nine times the Redskins won, the incumbent party won, and the prediction was correct.
• Eight times the Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, and the prediction was correct.
• Two times the Redskins lost, the incumbent party won, and the prediction was correct.
The details follow:
1940-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1944-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1948-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1952-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1956-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1960-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1964-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1968-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1972-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1976-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1980-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1984-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1988-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1992-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1996-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
2000-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
2004-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party won, the prediction was incorrect.
2008-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
2012-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party won, the prediction was incorrect.
With expertise such as this, who needs pollsters?
The above examples show that strong relationships exist between nature and business (sunspots and GDP/stock market) and sports outcomes and politics. While it is entertaining to talk about the strength of these correlations, their existence does not mean there is a cause and effect relationship. Looking ahead, that means the public cannot rely on the fortunes of the Redskins to portend the outcome of future elections. Unfortunately, that means, it will continue to be bombarded by pollsters and their political models in future election to identify and report those prognostications.