Roger Federer – Number 20 at the 2018 Men’s Australian Open

One of the great joys of being a tennis spectator is the Grand Slams. Each slam has a unique personality and every year they are many great individual stories. It is like having four Super Bowls every year.

The 2018 Men’s Australian Open was no exception. On the men’s side, the top story was Roger Federer’s five-set victory over Marin Cilic in the finals 6-2, 6-7(5), 6-3, 3-6, 6-1. This was Federer’s 20th Grand Slam singles victory.

Federer won his first Grand Slam at Wimbledon in 2003. That was eons ago! In 2003, George Bush had been president for two years, Saddam Hussien was captured, Lance Armstrong won his fifth Tour de France. Camera phones were introduced in 2003 and cargo pants were the rage.

At the time, expectations for Federer were low because he was an up-and-coming player. Six months later, he won his first Australian Open. Fourteen years later, Federer is still dominating. His victory over Cilic was his sixth Australian Open championship.

The 2018 Men’s Australian Open saw another lackluster performance by the American men. The top American performances were by unseeded players Ryan Harrison, who went 2-1, and Tennys Sandgren who was 4-1. Harrison lost to #6 seed Marin Cilic. Sandgren lost in the quarters to Chung, an unseeded player from Korea. Unfortunately, Sandgren’s playing accomplishments were overshadowed by comments he had previously made on social media.

The 3 seeded Americans had a tough tournament. Sam Querrey, #13, won a round while Jack Sock, #8, and John Isner, #16, were one and done.

The seven first round losers included John Isner, Kevin King, Jack Sock, Steve Johnson, Donald Young, Jared Donaldson, and Frances Tiafoe. In fairness to the men, King was defeated by #15 seed Tsonga; Johnson was ousted by fellow American, Kudla; Young fell to #14 seed Djokovic, Donaldson lost to #21 seed Ramos-Vinolas and Tiafoe fell to #12 seed Del Petro.

The four second round losers, who were 1-1, also faced tough draws. They included MacKenzie McDonald, Denis Kudla, Tim Smyczek, and Sam Querrey. Kudla lost to #5 seed Theim and Donaldson lost to #21 seed Ramos-Vinolas.

In total, the 13 American men won 10 matches while losing 13. Harrison and Sandgren won 6 of the 10 matches. Overall, the performance by the American men was about the same as 2017, when 14 men were 10-14.

Hoping for a stronger performance from the younger players in the French Open starting May 27th.

2018 Men's Australian Open

Americans Were Not Competitive at the 2017 Men’s French Open

While Rafael Nadal was working on his “10” at the 2017 Men’s French Open, the American men were struggling to win a match.

A review of the UTR ratings for the top American players confirms they are some of the best in the world. For example, John Isner, Steve Johnson, and Sam Querrey are in the range of 15.6 to 15.8. Donald Young and Ryan Harrison are slightly lower, 15.4 to 15.5. The problem is that Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal are rated 16.1 to 16.4.

While the difference between a 15.4 and 16.4 may sound small, the difference on the court is significant. As a result, the American men were not competitive in the 2017 Men’s French Open.

A review to the ATP world rankings prior to the French Open indicates there were nine American men ranked in the top 100:
• #15 Jack Sock
• #22 John Isner
• #26 Steve Johnson
• #28 Sam Querrey
• #42 Ryan Harrison
• #51 Donald Young
• #68 Frances Tiafoe
• #72 Jared Donaldson
• #75 Ernesto Escobedo
It is impressive to know there are that many men ranked in the top 100; however, it is unlikely these or any other American players will win a Grand Slam singles events within the next two years.

For the 2017 Men’s French Open, the following Americans were seeded because they had world rankings in the top 30: Sock (14), Isner (21), Johnson (25), and Querrey (27). Unfortunately, Sock and Querrey were defeated by unseeded players in the first round.

John Isner and Steve Johnson held their seeds. Both won two matches before bowing out in the third round. At that time, Isner lost to an unseeded player and Johnson lost in three sets to #6 seed Dominic Thiem.

The following players exited in the first round.
• Jared Donaldson
• Sam Querrey
• Ernesto Escobedo
• Frances Tiafoe
• Donald Young
• Bjorn Fratangelo
• Jack Sock
• Ryan Harrison
• Tennys Sandgren
Only Donald Young lost to a seeded player. David Ferrer, seeded 30th, beat Young in five close sets.

Overall the American men won only 4 matches while losing 11 matches.

American Girls Dominate at 2017 French Open Juniors

The nine American girls who played in the 2017 French Open Juniors won 20 matches and lost 8, with two Americans meeting in the finals.

Only three girls lost in the first round:
• Taylor Johnson
• Elie Douglas
• Sophia Sewing
Johnson’s loss was disappointing because she was seeded number10.

Elisia Bolton, 1-1, was the only loser in the second round. She was defeated handily by number 1 seed Anastasia Potopova.

Hailey Baptiste, 2-1, lost in the third round, to the number 11 seed, Elana Rybakina

Caty McNally and Amanda Anisimova both finished with 3 wins before bowing out in the quarterfinals. McNally lost to Whitney Osuigwe 6-3, 6-3 and McNally fell to Rybakina 7-6, 6-4.

Claire Lui, 5-1, lost to Osuigwe 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 in the All-American finals.

The boys had a solid performance by the boys, but they were not as dominant as the girls were. Only two boys were seeded, Trent Bryde, #8, and Oliver Campbell #11. Bryde did not hold his seed. The boys posted 12 wins and 11 losses,

Eight of the 11 players advanced to the second round. The following lost their first match:
• Olukayode Ayeni
• Patrick Kypson
• Vasil Kirkov
None of these athletes lost to seeded players.

The following boys were 1-1 and dropped their second round matches.
• Sam Riffice
• Trent Bryde
• Brian Cernoch
• Danny Thomas
• Alexandre Rotsaert
Only Thomas lost to a seeded player, #5, Yu Hsu.

In the third round, Sebastian Korda lost to fellow American Gianni Ross 2-6, 6-4, 6-0. Oliver Crawford was defeated by Clement Tabur 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.

Ross was ousted in the quarterfinals by number 3 seed Alexei Popyrin 4-6, 6-1, 7-5. Popyrin went on to win the championships.

Time will tell if the good fortunes of the juniors at the French Open is a sign of good things to come in the years ahead.

International Junior Competition is Stronger – American Juniors Struggle at Australian Open

The talent in the junior division at the Grand Slams has become more diverse over the years. As a result, both the American boys and girls faced stiff competition in the Australian Open Juniors competition, but both managed to have players reach the round of 16.

Nicole Mossmer, J. Rodriquez-Benito, Caty McNally, Hurricane Tyra Black, and Natasha Subhash lost their first round matches. Both Carson Branstine and Taylor Johnson posted 2 wins and 1 loss as they bowed out in the round of 16.

To illustrate the diversity of the draw, the 8 quarterfinalists represented 8 countries:    Canada, Great Britain, India, Japan, Russia, Switzerland, Taiwan, and Ukraine.

Overall, the 7 American girls won 4 matches and lost 7.

In the boys draw Olukayode Ayeni and Trent Bryde lost in the first round. Tristian Boyer won his first match before losing in the second round.

Alexandre Rotsaert won two matches before losing in the round of 16.

Overall, the 4 American boys won 3 matches and lost 4.

As was the case in the girls draw, there was also significant geographic diversity on the boys side. The 8 quarterfinalists represented the following 7 countries: China, Cyprus, (2) France, Hungary, Finland, Israel, and Russia.

It is easy to be critical of the USTA Player Development Program for the fact that none of the American juniors advanced past the round of 16. Typically very few American juniors play the Australian Junior Open and their performance is often lackluster.

In addition, it is easy to see that a number of countries other than the United States are developing world-class players. With stronger and greater geographic diversification, it is even more challenging to for the USTA to develop the top junior players in the world. Look for better things at the French Open and Wimbledon.

 

Hope and Change – American Men Out with a Whimper at U.S. Open

Hope and change were on the minds of the 15 American men who entered the 2013 U.S. Open. There was hope their fortunes would change and they would have a better outing than in previous Grand Slams.

Unfortunately, the American men combined to win 11 matches while losing 15. In the first round there were 8 winners. The 7 first-round losers included:

  • Brian Baker
  • Steve Johnson
  • James Blake
  • Michael Russell
  • Collin Attamirano
  • Rhyne Williams
  • Ryan Harrison.

There was hope that James Blake would end his 13 year career by playing deep into the draw. Unfortunately, he lost a five-set match in the first round. Though he was never a Grand Slam winner, he was a world class competitor and a great representative of U.S. tennis. He will be missed.

Second round (round of 64) losers included:

  • Rajeev Ram
  • Donald Young
  • Denis Kudia
  • Bradley Klahn
  • Sam Querrey

Only three men moved to the third round (round of 32).

Third round losers included Tim Smyczek, Jack Sock, and John Isner. In other words, no American men advanced to the round of 16.

For the second consecutive Grand Slam the American men went out with a whimper.

If there is to be hope for improvement in American men’s tennis, it will be necessary for change to occur in the philosophy and management of the USTA Player’s Development program.

Wimbledon 2013 – Upsets or Changing of the Guard

Most sports enthusiasts expected the Cubs to win the World Series before either Marion Bartoli (seeded 15th) or Sabine Lasicki (seeded 23rd) reached the finals of Wimbledon 2013.  Based on their seeds they were projected to exit the tourney in the round of 16 and 32.

With due respect to both players, the consensus was that the Jamaicans would win the Olympic bobsledding gold medal before Bartoli would reach the finals at the All England Lawn Tennis Club in the same year as Lasicki.  Their presence in the finals raises the question, “Were the upsets at Wimbledon 2013 an anomaly or were they a sign that a new era of women were joining the top ranks?”

While it is an accomplishment to be ranked in the top 10, only 5 of the top-ranked women (rankings prior to Wimbledon), have won Grand Slam women’s singles events.  The players and their birth years are:

  • Serena Williams  1981
  • Victoria Azarenka  1989
  • Maria Sharapova  1987
  • Agnieszka Radwanska  1989
  • Sara Errani  1987
  • Na Li  1982
  • Angelique Kerber  1988
  • Petra Kvitova  1990
  • Caroline Wozniacki  1990
  • Maria Kirlenko  1987

On average the top 10 players are 26 years old. While this is young by most standards, some of the upsets at Wimbledon are an indication that about half of the top 10 are closer to the end of their careers than to their peak competitive years and their ability to win a Grand Slam singles title.  Serena Williams and Na Li are both over the 30 while Kvitova and Wozniacki are the youngsters at 23.

The American women have a chance to make their presence felt as the changing of the guard continues to unfold over the next 18 months. The 14 American women Wimbledon entrants and their birth year follow:

  • Serena Williams  1981
  • Alison Riske  1990
  • Mallory Burdette  1991
  • Bethanie Mattek-Sands  1985
  • Madison Keys  1995
  • Varvara Lepchenko  1986
  • Sloane Stephens  1993
  • Jamie Hampton  1990
  • Christina McHale 1992
  • Alexa Glatch  1989
  • Lauren Davis  1993
  • Melanie Oudin  1991
  • Coco Vandeweghe  1991
  • Vania King  1989

Nine of the players lost in the first round:

  • Burdette, Hampton, Davis, Oudin, and Vandeweghe are 23 years old or younger.
  • Mattek-Sands, Lepchenko, Glatch, and King are at least 24 years old.

Most of the first round losers are young and have potential for success in future Grand Slams.

Overall the American women won 12 matches and lost 14. First round winners included Serena Williams, Alison Riske, Madison Keys, Sloane Stephens, and Christina McHale. With the exception of Williams the other four are 18 to 23 years old.  McHale lost in the second round and Riske and Keys were third round losers. Williams was upset in the round of 16 and Sloane Stephens lost in the quarterfinals.

Stephens has demonstrated that she is a force to be reckoned with.  Her losses in the 2013 Grand Slams follow:

  • Australian Open – lost to Azarenka (winner) in the semifinals.
  • French Open – lost to Sharapova (finalist) in the quarterfinals.
  • Wimbledon – lost to Bartoli (winner) in the quarterfinals.

On August 26, the U.S. Open begins.  At that time the next step in the evolution of women’s tennis will be showcased. It will be interesting to watch the role that the American women play in the changing of the guard.

 

American Men Have Weak Performance at French Open

The performance of the American men at the 2013 French Open was at the opposite end of the spectrum from the women. Ten players entered the tournament, four made it to the second round, and two played their final match in the third round. Combined, they had a total of six wins and three losses.

Unfortunately, the outlook for the future is more of the same.  Only 4 of the 10 American entrants were born after 1990, i.e. they are less than 23 years of age.

The record and birth year of the American men follows:

First round losers (0-1)

  • Alex Kuznetsov,  1987
  • Michael Russell, 1978
  • Rhyne Williams, 1991
  • Steve Johnson, 1989
  • James Blake, 1979
  • Denis Kudia, 1992.

Second round losers (1-1)

  • Jack Sock, 1992
  • Ryan Harrison, 1992

Third round losers (2-1)

  • John Isner, 1985
  • Sam Querrey, 1987.

Without a doubt, every player on this list is a talented player. Unfortunately none of them have made a name for themselves as consistently strong performers in the Grand Slams.

Will we see a breakthrough performance for the American men in the 2013 Wimbledon? Can John Isner’s big serve carry him to a strong performance? Will one of the younger players advance into the third or fourth rounds?  Not likely.

A Shift in Power for the Grand Slams?

Without a doubt Wimbledon is the premier tennis tournament in the world. It was the first held in 1877 and is the oldest Grand Slam. The inaugural U.S. Championships where held four years later, in 1881, followed by the French Open in 1891. Finally, the first Australian Open was held in 1905.

With the increased importance of China, India, and surrounding countries, a shift in power may be in place that favors the Australian Open. This shift would be driven by the increased population and television viewership in these countries and the fact that they are in the same time zone as Australia.

This is illustrated by the following summary of viewership for select Grand Slam events.

U.S. Open

  • 2012 US Open Men’s Finals – 16.2 million viewers watched Djokovic beat Murray (Source: AP).
  • 2012 US Open Women’s Finals – 17.7 million viewers watched Serena Williams beat Vika Azarenka (Source: AP).
  • 2002 US Open Women’s Finals – 20.1 million viewers watched Serena Williams beat Venus Williams (Source: AP)

French Open

  • 2011 French Open Women’s Finals – 65 million viewers in China watched Li Na defeat Francesca Schiavone (Source: Xinhua)
  • 2011 Australian Open Women’s Finals – 135 million viewers in China watched Li Na lose to Kim Clijsters. (Source: Sydney Morning Herald).
  • 2013 Australian Open Women’s Finals – The projected viewership in China was estimated to be greater than 200 million for finals – Vika Azarenka beat  Li Na. (Source: Sydney Morning Herald).

The increased prominence of the Asian market will ultimately impact the other Grand Slam events and the relative strength of tennis in the U.S. Consider the following questions:

Despite its tradition, will the Australian Open continue to reside “Down Under”, or will it be relocated to a more centrally located  Asian-Pacific city?

  • How much will the prestige and importance of the Australian Open increase given the size of the Asian market?
  • Will other majors be added to accommodate tennis in Asia?
  • How much will excitement over players such as Li Na increase the number of participants in China and around the world?
  • How will increased viewership in Asia impact the role of the USTA in global tennis?
  • With projected growth of the sport in Asia, will American players ever dominate the Grand Slams to the extent that the Williams sisters have?
  • Because of the time zone difference, will the U.S. be able to capitalize off the projected increase in popularity of tennis in Asia.

It will be interesting to see what changes occur in the Grand Slams over the next ten years.

 

Mixed Results for American Women at U.S. Open

Thank goodness for Serena Williams!

Once again Serena demonstrated that she is unequivocally the top player in women’s tennis and the only elite singles player in the United States.

While there are a handful of juniors and a half-dozen women under the age of 24 who have shown promise, time will tell if they will become elite players. Mallory Burdette and Sloane Stephens showed that they may be more than one-hit wonders by reaching the round of 32. Time will tell.

This year 16 of the 128 women players were from the U.S. and four reached the round of 32.

Round of 128
The 16 U.S. women players had an embarrassingly weak first round – 5 wins and 11 losses.
• Winners – Varvara Lepchenko, Mallory Burdette, Sloane Stephens, Serena Williams, Venus Williams.
• Losers -. Samantha Crawford, Victoria Duval, Julia Cohen, Melodie Oudin, Jamie Hampton, Nicole Gibbs, Coco Vandeweghe, Bethanie Mattek-Sands, Christina McHale, Irina Falconi, and Vania King.

Round of 64
The women fared well in the second round – 4 wins and 1 loss.
• Winners – Varvara Lepchenko, Mallory Burdette, Sloane Stephens, and Serena Williams.
• Loser – Venus Williams.

Round of 32
With the exception of Serena Williams, the other American women lost (Stephens had a strong showing) – 1 win and 3 losses.
• Winners – Serena Williams.
• Losers – Varvara Lepchenko, Mallory Burdette, and Sloane Stephens.

Round of 16
Serena William remained on the winning track – 1 win and 0 loss.

Quarterfinals
Serena defeated Ivanovic handily – 1 win and 0 loss.

Semifinals
Serena blew out Errani – 1 win and 0 loss.

Finals
Serena wins in three sets against Azarenka – 1 win and 0 losses

At the Australian Open, the 10 American women won 9 matches and lost 10. (Serena won 3 matches)
At the French Open, the 12 American women won 15 matches and lost 12. (Serena won 0 matches)
At Wimbledon, the 10 American women won 14 matches and lost 9. (Serena won 7 matches)
At the U.S. Open, the 16 American women won 14 matches and lost 15. (Serena won 7 matches).

In the 2012 Grand Slams, the American women won 52 matches and lost 46. Serena Williams was 17-2. She won 17 of the 52 matches won by American women.

Given the track record of the USTA Player Development Program, hopefully, Serena can stay healthy for a long, long time.

U.S. Juniors Have Mediocre Showing at Wimbledon

After solid performances in the French and Australian Opens, the American juniors had a disappointing performance at Wimbledon. Through the first three Grand Slams, the two strongest performers have been Mitchell Krueger and Taylor Townsend.

The girls and boys singles events were won by a pair of Canadians. Eugenie Bouchard defeated Elina Svitolina (Ukraine) in the finals of the Girls’ singles. In the Boys’ event Filip Peliwo upset Luke Saville of Australia.

Eight Americans Boys represented the U.S. in singles. Their results are listed below.

Round of 64
The boys had a combined record of 3-5 in the first round.
Winners: Thai-Son Kwiatkowski, Stefan Kozlov and Mitchell Krueger.
Losers: Noah Rubin, Alexios Halebian, Connor Farren, MacKenzie McDonald, and Spencer Papa.

Round of 32
The boys had a strong second round, 2-1.
Winners: Thai-Son Kwiatkowski and Mitchell Krueger.
Loser: Stefan Kozlov.

Round of 16
The boys split their matches in the third round, 1-1
Winners: Mitchell Krueger.
Losers: Thai-Son Kwiatkowski.

Quarterfinals
Only Krueger advanced to the semifinals, 1-0.
Winner: Mitchell Krueger.
Loser: None.

Semifinals
The journey ended in the semifinals for the boys, 0-1.
Winner: None
Loser: Mitchell Krueger.

The boys had a combined record of 7-8 at Wimbledon. Krueger, the top American, also lost in the semifinals of the French Open. At the French Open, the American Boys were 9-6. Down Under they were 4-3, and McKenzie McDonald led the way, bowing out in the semifinals.

Eight girls represented the U.S. in the singles draw. Their results follow.

Round of 64
The girls had a modest showing in the first round, 4-4.
Winners: Taylor Townsend, Alexandra Kiick, Sachia Vickery, and Kyle S. McPhillips.
Losers: Christina Makarova, Catherine Harrison, Chalena Scholl, and Jennifer Brady.

Round of 32
The girls had a solid second round, 3-1.
Winners: Taylor Townsend, Alexandra Kiick, and Sachia Vickery.
Loser: Kyle S. McPhillips.

Round of 16
The girls had a disastrous third round, 0-3.
Winners: None.
Losers: Taylor Townsend, Alexandra Kiick, and Sachia Vickery.

Overall, the girls had a disappointing showing at Wimbledon, with 7 wins and 8 losses. At the French Open the American girls had 10 wins and 7 losses, although nobody advanced past the round of 16. Down Under, the American girls had 18 wins and 6 losses. Taylor Townsend won the event and Krista Hardebeck was ousted in the semis.

There will like be a larger contingency of American juniors at the U.S. Open. With a little luck and some good home cooking, a strong showing should be on tap.