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What is the Right Number of In-State Players on a College Volleyball Team?

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Right or wrong, there is a belief that colleges and universities should emphasize the recruitment of in-state players. For states with larger pools of talent, such as California and Texas, that is easy. As well, it gives programs in those states a recruiting advantage.

A review of the rosters for the 2012 PAC 12 volleyball teams was conducted to identify the number of in-state players on their rosters. This analysis produced the following results:
• About 42%, or 78 of 185 players, were in-state players.
• 7 of the 12 teams had rosters that included more than 42% in-state players.
• The breakdown of in-state players by team, and the percentage of in-state players on each team follows:
– UCLA 12 players, 75.0% of the team – California team
– Cal 9 players, 60.0% of the team – California team
– OSU 9 players, 50.0% of the team
– Stanford 8 players, 53.3% of the team – California team
– WSU 7 players, 50.0% of the team
– UU 7 players, 43.8% of the team
– USC 6 players, 46.2% of the team – California team
————42.2% average for the PAC 12—————————–
– CU 6 players, 40.0% of the team
– ASU 6 players, 35.3% of the team
– WU 3 players, 20.0% of the team
– UO 3 players, 20.0% of the team
– UA 2 players, 12.5% of the team.
It is very clear that it is easier for the California teams to recruit in-state players because they have a larger talent pool. It seems evident that recruiting in-state players is less important than attracting quality players for Oregon, Washington, and Arizona.

Is 42% too low of a percentage for the number of in-state players? Should teams be required to have quotas for the number of in-state players on their rosters? The answer depends on the mission of the PAC-12 and its member schools.

 

Piti Piti – Olympians Give Colorado Juniors a Lesson in Volleyball and Life

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At 4:53 p.m. on Tuesday, January 12 2010, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake hit Haiti and lasted for 35 seconds. The epicenter was near the town of Leogane, about 15 miles west of Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince. Within the next two weeks at least 52 significant aftershocks hit the area. The Haitian government reported that 316,000 people died, 300,000 were injured, 1 million were left without homes, and 3 million were affected by the quake. As well, 250,000 residences and 30,000 commercial buildings were severely damaged or destroyed. (Source: Wikipedia and http://www.childinhand.org)

In the time that has passed since the tragedy, the country has received assistance from a variety of sources. The groups include Child in Hand, whose mission is to promote youth development in post-conflict and disaster environments including medical, education, and treatment programs. As part of this effort, the group is currently working with USA Volleyball and the Haitian Volleyball Federation to open a multi-sport facility. To increase awareness of this mission and to raise funds to support their work, Child in Hand conducted a junior volleyball clinic, Colorado Serving Haiti, at the East Boulder Recreation Center on December 2.

Instruction for the event was served up by Tom Hogan, 2008 Olympic coach; Tayyiba Haneef-Park, 3 time Olympian; and Tracy Stalls, former member of the U.S. National Team. Participants sported t-shirts with the saying, “Piti, piti, zwazo fe nich li.” (Little by little, the bird builds its nest – Haitian proverb). In between instructional sessions Stall provided “reality checks” to discuss the challenges faced by victims of the earthquake and to contrast their lifestyle with the way most Americans live. When the group huddled to discuss the next drill, they would break with the cheer, “Piti, piti” – little by little. This is truly a fitting chant for the recovery of a nation and for athletes wanting to better their skills.

Park and Stalls concluded the instructional session by demonstrating how volleyball is played in Haiti. The final drill was played on a Haitian net; two players held sticks with two strings attached. Instead of using a cart full of balls, the drill was completed with one ball. The players rotated through their positions on both sides of the net, as well as a turn holding the net. For all the junior players who have come to expect first rate coaching and playing conditions, this demonstration was a real eye-opener.

After the last player was given a chance to hold up the net (the stick with two strings), the players and coaches huddled one last time for an inspirational, “Piti, piti.”

 

Are Foreign Players Taking Over PAC-12 Volleyball?

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Concerns have been raised about the number of foreign athletes in select collegiate sports, such as skiing and tennis. With the increase in popularity of volleyball there is the possibility that some coaches will try to build a national contender by recruiting top national players from other countries.

A quick review of the online rosters for the 2012 PAC 12 teams was conducted to see if this was an issue in that conference. This analysis produced the following results:
• About 10% of all players, or 18 of 185, listed hometowns in other countries.
• The 18 foreign players represented 11 countries.
• 10 of the 12 teams had foreign players.
• The breakdown by number of foreign players follows:
– USC had 3 foreign players.
– 6 teams had 2 foreign players: ASU, Colorado, Utah, California, UCLA, and OSU.
– 3 teams had one foreign player: WU, WSU, and OU.
• The breakdown by country follows
– 4 players were from Canada.
– 2 players were from each of the following: Greece, Italy, Puerto Rico, and Serbia.
– 1 player was from each of the following: Brazil, France, Germany, Mexico, Slovenia, and Ukraine.

At this point, there does not appear to be reason to believe that there are an inordinate number of foreign players in the PAC-12. Given the strength and popularity of high school volleyball in the U.S., it is unlikely that “too many” foreign players will become a problem in the near future.

 

PAC 12 Volleyball – The West Coast Conference

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Throughout most of the 2012 collegiate volleyball season a case could be made that the PAC 12 was the dominant conference. This begs the question, “What states and countries do these players come from?”

A quick review of the rosters shows that the teams listed 185 players. A breakdown of the players by their hometown follows:
• About 90%, or 167, of the players are American.
• American players came from 19 states.
• The teams had players from at least 3 states and up to 7 states.
• Every team had players from CA.
• The breakdown of players by state follows:
– CA 78 players, 46.7%
– WA 15 players, 9.0%
– OR 14 players, 8.4%
– TX  12 players, 7.2%
– AZ 11 players, 6.6%
– CO 9 players, 5.4%
– UT 8 players, 4.8%
– HI 5 players, 3.0%
– FL, ID, IL, NV – each two players 1.2% each
– MO, NE, NM, NC, OK, SD, VA – each 1 player 0.6% each
• Only 3 American players had hometowns east of the Mississippi
• Slightly more than 64% of the players are from the three West Coast states.

Clearly, the conference is regional and its dominance can be attributed to the quality of volleyball players from California and the western region.

The Mean Green Serving Machine Captures Intramural Championship

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After six weeks of bumps, sets, and spikes, (and lots of hits and giggles) the Mean Green Serving Machine (MGSM) eked out an undefeated season. Actually, if you ask the players, they were masters of the universe, they dominated! Karch Kiraly, you better be watching the program for future talent.

As champions of the intramural volleyball program for the Academy in Westminster the players gained bragging rights as the best elementary team in the school. For six weeks, they listened in practice, they learned new skills and improved existing ones, they tried hard, they felt good about their accomplishments, and they were the best.

From a broader perspective, the real significance of the victory was that the kids were able to gain instruction beyond their physical education class and test their skills in a competitive environment in an elementary school intramural program. Programs like this don’t exist everywhere, but they should!

 

Here’s the scoop about the program:

• Teams included boys and girls in the 3rd through 6th grades.
• Light balls were used to make it easier for the younger players.
• The program was run by the elementary physical education teacher. Parents and members of the community coached the teams. Most had experience coaching volleyball or other sports. From that perspective it was a step above most recreation programs.
• Since the Academy is a K-12 charter school, players from the junior high and high school teams served as mentors and assistant coaches.
• There were 6 teams with 8 to 10 players each, or about 55 total players. This is about 15% of the kids at this grade level, a remarkable percentage given the number of competing activities in the community.
• Practices and games were held on Saturdays for six weeks. Each team practiced an hour (8:00, 9:00, or 10:00) and matches were played between 11:00 and 2:00.
• Team fees were minimal and the price included a t-shirt that the kids proudly wore to the practices and games.
• Each match included two games to 25. A third, and sometimes deciding, game to 15 was always played, no matter who won the first two games.
• The 3rd and 4th graders served from a special line closer to the net. In addition, they got two chances the first time they served.
• The better serving team won most games, yet there was no restriction on the number of consecutive points a team could win (welcome to the dog-eat-dog world). Not to worry, no team has ever won a match 25-0.
• There was ongoing substitution so everyone played the same amount of time.
• The teams made up their own name. As might be expected, the MGSM had Kelly green jerseys. The league’s award for the best sense of humor went to the team with the neon yellow t-shirts. Their moniker was the Highlighters.
• For the older players, the practice and competition were as important as the snacks after the game.

The value of the program extended beyond the boundaries of the court into the hallways and community. The upperclassmen made friends with the younger players – they became their friends and role models in the hallways, lunchroom and on the playground. In many cases parents met parents they wouldn’t have met otherwise.

The program demonstrated that value of youth sports programs. Players, parents, and the entire school community were all winners.

For data on participation in youth sports click here.

 

Who Needs Political Pollsters When you have Professional Sports Predictive Models

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In May, 2007 Theodore Modis published research showing that a correlation had been observed between the U.S. Gross Domestic Product and the number of sunspots. As well, there was a strong correlation between the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the number of sunspots. The data cover 80 years of history. (The report is available at www.sciencedirect.com.)

Similarly, a strong correlation exists between World Series winners and the winner of the presidential elections. In addition, there is a close tie between the fortunes of the Washington Redskins in their last game prior to the presidential election and the ability of the incumbent party to maintain control of the White House.

A review of the data in the 19 elections between 1940 and 2012 shows that the World Series predictive model has a weaker overall record than Redskins model, but the baseball model accurately predicted the win by the Democrats in 2012.

The World Series Predictive Model

In the past 19 elections, the World Series Predictive Model was correct 73.6% of the time (14 of 19). It corrected foretold that Barack Obama would be elected president. In summary:
• Seven times the National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
• Two times the National League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was incorrect.
• Seven times the American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
• Three times the American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
The details are listed below:

1940-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1944-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1948-The American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1952-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1956-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1960-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1964-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1968-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1972-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1976-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
1980-The National League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1984-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
1988-The National League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1992-The American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
1996-The American League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was incorrect.
2000-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
2004-The American League won, the Republicans won, and the prediction was correct.
2008-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.
2012-The National League won, the Democrats won, and the prediction was correct.

The Redskins Predictive Model

Over time, the Redskins Model has been correct 89.5% of the time (17 of 19); however, it has missed two of the last three elections.

In summary:
• Nine times the Redskins won, the incumbent party won, and the prediction was correct.
• Eight times the Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, and the prediction was correct.
• Two times the Redskins lost, the incumbent party won, and the prediction was correct.

The details follow:

1940-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1944-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1948-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1952-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1956-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1960-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1964-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1968-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1972-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1976-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1980-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1984-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1988-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
1992-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
1996-The Redskins won, the incumbent party won, the prediction was correct.
2000-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
2004-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party won, the prediction was incorrect.
2008-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party lost, the prediction was correct.
2012-The Redskins lost, the incumbent party won, the prediction was incorrect.

With expertise such as this, who needs pollsters?

The above examples show that strong relationships exist between nature and business (sunspots and GDP/stock market) and sports outcomes and politics. While it is entertaining to talk about the strength of these correlations, their existence does not mean there is a cause and effect relationship. Looking ahead, that means the public cannot rely on the fortunes of the Redskins to portend the outcome of future elections. Unfortunately, that means, it will continue to be bombarded by pollsters and their political models in future election to identify and report those prognostications.

 

 

USA Pro Challenge 2012 Promotes Colorado’s Active Lifestyle

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In mid-October, USA Pro Challenge officials released the economic impact study for the 2012 Professional Cycling Race. Essentially, the results are comparable to last year – a lot of people watched the race and “new” money was spent in the state as a result of the event. The “measured” economic impacts were just shy of $100 million.

Intangible Benefits
Of the various contributions to Colorado, the intangible benefits resonate with more people.
• Colorado has a tradition of bicycle racing that dates back to the Red Zinger Classic. Like its predecessor, the Pro Challenge is an event that reflects the outdoor, fitness-minded personality of the state.
• There were 31 hours of race coverage on NBC and NBC Sports Network in the U.S. As well, participants came from 25 states and the race received coverage in 175 countries. The mountain communities of Colorado present the state in a favorable light.

Attendance
Measuring the attendance of the Pro Challenge is difficult, to say the least.
• Race officials reported that 1+ million people attended the event both last year and this year.
• Throughout the race, the media suggested that attendance was down in some cities. They created the impression that overall attendance was less this year, but that the event was well received.

As a point of reference about 600,000 people attend 8 Denver Bronco home games, slightly more than 600,000 people visit the National Western Stock Show (NWSS), and 2.5 to 3.0 million people go to Colorado Rockies games.

Economic Impact
Economic impact analyses for events provide a general overview of economic activity in the region that is a direct result of that event. Some methodologies will present a breakdown of activity by wages and direct expenses related to the event. As well, expenditures in the region may be summarized for such things as lodging, food, or transportation.

If methodologies are similar, it is possible to compare the economic impact of multiple events. For example, the impact of the Pro Challenge is slightly less than the estimated impact of the NWSS. The impacts of the Women’s Final Four and the Crossroads Volleyball Tournament are about $20 million each. Each of these events has different levels of impact and makes distinct tangible and intangible contributions to the local economy.

Most economic impact studies do not look at the fiscal impact or the net fiscal impact of events. Those analyses are pertinent for many of the towns or regions because they compare tax revenues generated by the event to expenses of the events as a tool for determining their fiscal value to the community.

The economic impact of the Pro Challenge follows:
• The estimated economic impact to the state is $99.6 million compared to about $83.6 million last year.
• Given that attendance was similar for the two years, the increased impact is most likely a result of changes in the host towns.
• The press release stated that “Fans from outside the state and Coloradans traveling 50 miles or more to take in an event stage contributed $81.5 million on lodging, food, transportation and entertainment. The remaining economic impact came in the form of team, staff, sponsor and vendor spending, employment created by the event, and the resulting tax effects of the race.”
• The press release did not provide a breakdown of per capita spending (spending by Coloradans traveling at least 50 miles, out of state travelers, and locals).. Such an analysis may be in the full report and would help identify the true impact of the type of visitor to the tourism industry. Similarly, it would be valuable to understand the breakdown of spending by category (lodging, food, etc.)
• Since team, staff, sponsor and vendor spending and tax effects totaled about $18.1 million. It is likely that the fiscal contribution to the state, i.e. taxes paid, was a minor part of the total impact.

Other Interesting Tidbits
The research firm also collected the following snippets of information about the visitors:
• The average size of the travel parties was three people.
• While the median household income (HHI) of Colorado residents is $56,456, race spectators averaged a household income of $110,000.
• Surely, there is a typo in the above sentence. It is not appropriate to compare a median of one group to an average of another group. In most data sets the values of a median and an average are significantly different.
• It is also important to evaluate how the HHI for the spectators (median or average) compares to the HHI for non-spectators visiting the host cities. That will make it easier to differentiate whether cycling spectators have larger pocketbooks than other travelers.
• About 86% said they were very satisfied or satisfied with the race.
• More than half of spectators ride a bike for fitness and about 22% ride a bike occasionally or not at all.
• Slightly more than 93% watched part of the Tour de France on television.
• As a point of reference, the world-wide number of television viewers is 45 to 50 million. Does it make sense that about two percent of those viewers watched the Pro Cycling Challenge in person?
• About 64% of the spectators wanted to witness the elite level of competition, 45% were interested in the destination cities and 46% wanted to experience the start/finish festivals.
• About 75% of out-of-state visitors were more likely or much more likely to visit Colorado again based on their experience at the USA Pro Challenge.
• The press release stated “53% of spectators claimed they would not have traveled to Colorado at this time if it were not for the race. And with that, 75.8% stated they were very likely or likely to return to watch the race next year.”
o For these numbers to have full meaning, it is necessary to understand how many of the 1+ million spectators were local and how many were from outside the area. Presumably that information is included in the report.

Overall, these results paint a positive picture of the impact of the Pro Challenge race.

Conclusion
The USA Pro Challenge is one of many sporting events (Professional and college sports, ongoing events such as the NWSS, and other special events such as the Women’s Final Four) that contribute to the state economy and the perception that Colorado is prosperous state, with a diverse economy, and an active lifestyle.

 

The WAC has been Whacked – What are the Implications?

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In late August, Jake Bullinger, prepared the special for SI.com, “How Conference Realignment Wiped WAC Football off the Map.” For the 2013 season the WAC will most likely not exist as a football conference. In fact it may not even exist as an athletic conference.

The Western Athletic Conference, (WAC) was formed in 1962 with BYU, Utah, University of New Mexico, Wyoming, Arizona, and Arizona State as its members. Over the years it membership changed drastically as new member joined on other members left for the Mountain West Conference, Conference USA, and the PAC 8 Conference.

Current membership includes:
• Louisiana Tech
• New Mexico State University
• San Jose State
• Seattle University
• Texas State
• University of Denver
• University of Idaho
• University of Texas at Arlington
• University of Texas at San Antonio
• Utah State

For all practical purposes the NCAA and the larger body of college football have no apparent reason to care about the loss of the WAC. None of its current members are serious threats to the teams in the top conferences nor are they responsible for significant revenue generation.

The demise of the WAC may mean that some students will lose scholarships or an opportunity to play. Coaches and staff members at some of these schools may be adversely affected if programs are scaled down or disbanded.

There is no doubt that college football is a great American tradition – even in the current version of the WAC. That is not the issue. Research shows that college football expenditures at many schools are trending on an unsustainable track. The whacking of the WAC raises a number of questions:

• Should all colleges and universities have football programs? Certainly schools such as the University of Denver, Colorado College, DePaul, Marquette, Providence, Seton Hall and St. John’s would argue that it isn’t necessary.
• Football programs are big business. Is it financially possible to support athletic conferences for schools without football programs?
• Can the WAC football schools find other conferences to join or can they afford to be independents like Notre Dame?
• Have television rights, sponsorships, and advertising partnerships become more important than the players and coaches in the program?
• For schools with programs that are less successful, football programs are often money pits. Will they eventually spend themselves into bankruptcy as they try to keep up with the schools funded by Phil Knight and T.B. Pickens?
• Is the demise of the WAC yet another step in the formation of football super conferences for only the elite programs?
• Should college football formally become the farm system for the National Football League – funded by the NFL?
• What are the unintended consequences of the shutdown of the WAC or football programs at other smaller athletic conferences?
• As the chase for $$ accelerates, will college football go the way of the World Series – a great American tradition that has lost its luster?
• Will the loss of the WAC adversely impact scholarship and playing opportunities for kids in other sports?

Stay tuned!

 

Who’s Playing College Sports?

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In September 2008, the Women’s Sports Foundation released a report entitled, Who’s Playing College Sports: Money, Race, and Gender. The report was authored by Dr. John Cheslock of the University of Arizona.

The report provides a description of men’s and women’s college sports participation patterns. It looks at the role of Title IX, athletic expenditure growth, changes in high school sports participation, rising health care costs, increased international students, college recruitment practices, and diversity within sports programs.

The key findings from the report are listed (verbatim):

• All available data on intercollegiate athletic participation produce the same conclusion: Both men’s and women’s participation levels have increased over the last 25 years.

• Higher education institutions have responded to Title IX by increasing women’s participation rather than by decreasing men’s participation.

• Expenditures on intercollegiate athletics, especially for men’s basketball and football in Division I of the NCAA, have grown at unsustainable rates.

• A variety of factors beyond Title IX and rapid athletic expenditure growth help explain why participation in certain sports (such as lacrosse and soccer) has grown steadily while participation in other sports (such as tennis, gymnastics and wrestling) has waned.

• While the early growth in women’s athletics favored those sports with the highest levels of racial and ethnic diversity, recent growth has favored women’s sports with less diversity. This latter shift has occurred because almost all NCAA schools already sponsor most of the sports with high participation by female athletes of color.

For most people involved in sports at some level (youth sports, high school sports, recreation programs, club sports, sports fan, coach, athletic director, booster, etc.) at least one of the above findings has to be a shocker or at least create a level of discomfort. A copy of this and other research can be found by visiting the WSF website.

Keep our Kids Playing – The Importance of Youth Sports Programs

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Thirty-five million kids play organized sports each year. About 60% participate in programs outside their schools.

This includes club sports, leagues, and programs at YMCAs, churches, and recreation centers.

About two-thirds of boys and 52% of girls play organized sports.

The Women’s Sports Foundation has conducted extensive research on the importance of sports programs for female high school athletes. Those findings show that:
• Female high school athletes are 92% less likely to get involved with drugs.
• Female high school athletes are 80% less likely to get pregnant.
• Female high school athletes are 3 time more likely to graduate than non-athletes.

A nationwide study of youth sports (10,000 kids ages 5-14) by Michigan State University produced the following results:
• 15% were reluctant to play sports.
• 65% participate in sports to be with friends.
• 37% said they wished no parents would watch them play.
• 71% said they wouldn’t care if no score was kept in their games.
• 51% said they have seen other kids act like poor sports frequently.
• 45% said they had been called names or insulted by coaches.
• 90% would prefer to be on a losing team if they could play rather than warm the bench on a winning team.
The most damning statistic from the study was that 35% said they planned to stop playing their sport next year.

The message is clear, youth sports are an important part of our society.

Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com.