Some think that Serena Williams is on the decline.
To justify that viewpoint they would argue that she has lost in the finals of the last three Grand Slams to players she should have beaten. Not only that, in 2016 she has won only 1 tournament, she has lost in the finals of 3 tournaments (including 2 grand slams) and she was defeated in the round of 16 in the other tournament.
Even though she is #1 in the world, she is “only” 24-4.
By comparison, #2 ranked Agniewszka Radwanska is 25-7 in 8 tournaments this year. She has won 1 tournament, made it to the semis of 4 tournaments, lost in the round of 16 twice and was defeated in the round of 64 on 1 occasion.
Here is where it gets interesting!
The case that Williams on the decline can be made by saying that:
• She has “only” won 55.6% of the points played this year.
• She has “only” won 62.6% of the games played this year.
• Given the low percentage of points she has won, she is lucky to win 87.1% of her matches.
Compare those stats to Radwanska. Her stats show that:
• She has won 53.7% of the points played this year.
• She has won 59.4% of the games played this year.
• She is not far behind Williams and has won 78.7% of her matches.
The following tables from the WTA website (wtatennis.com) show YTD serving and receiving data (through the French Open) for both women. The difference between #1 and #2 is a reflection of contrasting styles of play.
WILLIAMS SERVICE RECORD
| Category | Number/% |
|---|---|
| Aces | 186 |
| Double faults | 77 |
| 1st serve | 60.20% |
| 1st serve points won | 73% |
| 2nd serve points won | 49.60% |
| Break points faced | 145 |
| Break points saved | 62.80% |
| Service games played | 273 |
| Service games won | 80.20% |
| Service points won | 63.60% |
WILLIAMS RETURN RECORD
| Category | Number/% |
|---|---|
| 1st serve return points won | 40.90% |
| 2nd serve return points won | 58.50% |
| Break points opportunities | 263 |
| Break points converted | 46% |
| Return games played | 270 |
| Return games won | 44.80% |
| Return points won | 47.90% |
| Total points won | 55.60% |
RADWANSKA SERVICE RECORD
| Category | Number/% |
|---|---|
| Aces | 81 |
| Double faults | 54 |
| 1st serve | 63.10% |
| 1st serve points won | 65.20% |
| 2nd serve points won | 45.20% |
| Break points faced | 220 |
| Break points saved | 56.40% |
| Service games played | 314 |
| Service games won | 69.40% |
| Service points won | 57.80% |
RADWANSKA RETURN RECORD YTD,
| Category | Number/% |
|---|---|
| 1st serve return points won | 43.60% |
| 2nd serve return points won | 60.20% |
| Break points opportunities | 288 |
| Break points converted | 52.40% |
| Return games played | 307 |
| Return games won | 49.20% |
| Return points won | 49.60% |
| Total points won | 53.70% |
The data shows that Williams is more of a power player and holds an advantage in the percentage of first serve points won and in the percentage of break points saved. As a steadier player, Radwanska holds an advantage in the percentage of return games won.
The difference in the percentage of total points won seems minor (55.6%-53.7%=1.9%); however, it translates to a much larger difference in the percentage of matches won (87.1%-78.7%=8.4%) Clearly, Serena Williams is the most dominant player on the women’s tour.