Is Serena Williams on the Decline?

Some think that Serena Williams is on the decline.

To justify that viewpoint they would argue that she has lost in the finals of the last three Grand Slams to players she should have beaten. Not only that, in 2016 she has won only 1 tournament, she has lost in the finals of 3 tournaments (including 2 grand slams) and she was defeated in the round of 16 in the other tournament.

Even though she is #1 in the world, she is “only” 24-4.

By comparison, #2 ranked Agniewszka Radwanska is 25-7 in 8 tournaments this year. She has won 1 tournament, made it to the semis of 4 tournaments, lost in the round of 16 twice and was defeated in the round of 64 on 1 occasion.

Here is where it gets interesting!

The case that Williams on the decline can be made by saying that:
• She has “only” won 55.6% of the points played this year.
• She has “only” won 62.6% of the games played this year.
• Given the low percentage of points she has won, she is lucky to win 87.1% of her matches.

Compare those stats to Radwanska. Her stats show that:
• She has won 53.7% of the points played this year.
• She has won 59.4% of the games played this year.
• She is not far behind Williams and has won 78.7% of her matches.

The following tables from the WTA website (wtatennis.com) show YTD serving and receiving data (through the French Open) for both women. The difference between #1 and #2 is a reflection of contrasting styles of play.

WILLIAMS SERVICE RECORD

Category Number/%
Aces 186
Double faults 77
1st serve 60.20%
1st serve points won 73%
2nd serve points won 49.60%
Break points faced 145
Break points saved 62.80%
Service games played 273
Service games won 80.20%
Service points won 63.60%

WILLIAMS RETURN RECORD

Category Number/%
1st serve return points won 40.90%
2nd serve return points won 58.50%
Break points opportunities 263
Break points converted 46%
Return games played 270
Return games won 44.80%
Return points won 47.90%
Total points won 55.60%

RADWANSKA SERVICE RECORD
Category Number/%
Aces 81
Double faults 54
1st serve 63.10%
1st serve points won 65.20%
2nd serve points won 45.20%
Break points faced 220
Break points saved 56.40%
Service games played 314
Service games won 69.40%
Service points won 57.80%

RADWANSKA RETURN RECORD YTD,

Category Number/%
1st serve return points won 43.60%
2nd serve return points won 60.20%
Break points opportunities 288
Break points converted 52.40%
Return games played 307
Return games won 49.20%
Return points won 49.60%
Total points won 53.70%

The data shows that Williams is more of a power player and holds an advantage in the percentage of first serve points won and in the percentage of break points saved. As a steadier player, Radwanska holds an advantage in the percentage of return games won.

The difference in the percentage of total points won seems minor (55.6%-53.7%=1.9%); however, it translates to a much larger difference in the percentage of matches won (87.1%-78.7%=8.4%) Clearly, Serena Williams is the most dominant player on the women’s tour.